3.6 Computing by Hand

3.6.1 Compute the Expected Value

Let \(X\) represent the result of one roll of a 6 sided die where the events \(\omega \in \Omega\) are mapped using a straightforward function: \(X(\omega):\) is a function that counts the number of spots that are showing, and maps the number of dots to the corresponding integer, \(\mathbb{Z}\).

  • Calculating by hand, what is the expected value \(X\), which we write as \(E[X]\)?
  • After you have calculated \(E[X]\): Is it possible that the result of a roll is this value?
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3.6.2 Playing a Gnome Game, Part 1

  • Suppose that, out on a hike in the hills above campus, you happen across a gnome who asks you if you would like to play the following game:
    • You pay the gnome a dollar, and guess a number between 0 and 6. So, let \(g \in \mathbb{R}: 0 \leq g \leq 6\).
    • After you make your guess, the gnome rolls a dice, which comes up with a value \(d \in \mathbb{Z}: d \in \{1,2,3,4,5,6\}\).
    • The gnome pays you \(p = 0.25 \times |d - g|\).
    • First question: What is the best guess you can make?
    • Second Question: Should you play this game?

Fill this in by hand.

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3.6.3 Compute the Variance

Let \(X\) represent the result of one roll of a 6 sided die.

  • Calculating by hand, what is the variance of \(X\)?
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3.6.4 Playing a Gnome Game, Part 2

  • How much do you expect to make on any particular time that you play the game with the best strategy?
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